UPDATE: 2025/06/08 07:56 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN

Ballerina Falls Slightly Below Saturday's $25.5-$27.5 Million Range

This article was originally written Saturday AM and has been updated Sunday AM with up-to-date box office projections (in bold), a full chart, and further analysis.

Ballerina release kicked off during the first weekend of June, with the Ana de Armas-led John Wick spinoff arriving one week after Karate Kid: Legends and two weeks after the Memorial Day tentpoles Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning and Lilo & Stitch. The latter, which is Disney's live-action remake of their 2002 animated hit, broke the record for the biggest Memorial Day weekend debut in history and has quickly zoomed past a worldwide gross of $600 million.

Per Deadline, as of Sunday morning, From the World of John Wick: Ballerina is expected to earn a 3-day domestic gross of $25 million by the end of its opening weekend, falling behind its earlier projections of $28 million. However, this is still enough for it to take No. 2 on the domestic chart, though it was unable to topple Lilo & Stitch, which takes No. 1 for the third consecutive weekend with a projected total of $32.5 million. See the full domestic Top 5 chart for the weekend below:

After holding its own against Karate Kid: Legends during its sophomore weekend, Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning has relinquished its perch at No. 2 to Ballerina, slipping down the chart with a week-on-week drop of 45% during its third weekend. This in turn, has pushed Karate Kid: Legends from No. 3 to No. 4 with a harsh 58% drop while Final Destination Bloodlines showed stronger legs in its fourth weekend with a roughly 40% drop that sees it drawing ever closer to the $250 million worldwide milestone, which it could very well hit before the beginning of its fifth weekend.

With only one new movie ing the chart during the first weekend of June, there is just a single departure from the Top 5. That title would be the new A24 horror movie Bring Her Back, which stars Sally Hawkins and was helmed by Talk to Me's Danny and Michael Philippou. It fell from No. 5 to No. 7 with a 3-day total of $3.5 million representing a week-on-week drop of 51%, which is not bad for a horror movie, but significantly worse than Talk to Me's 39.4% drop during its own sophomore weekend.

Talk to Me, which had a debut weekend of $10.4 million compared to Bring Her Back's $7.2 million, eventually grossed $91.9 million worldwide, becoming A24's third highest-grossing movie in history.

The reason that Bring Her Back fell two spots instead of one is the fact that the new Wes Anderson movie The Phoenician Scheme has risen to No. 6 during its wide expansion, grossing $6.25 million in 1,678 theaters, marking a week-on-week rise of 1015%. The movie has now hit a cumulative domestic total of $7 million, which sees it drawing closer to suring the $11.9 million domestic gross of Anderson's The Darjeeling Limited, at which point it will begin its climb up the director's chart for domestic performance.

What This Means For Ballerina

It May Not Turn A Profit

This opening weekend will see Ballerina premiering with the second worst 3-day domestic debut of all five John Wick movies, behind the original 2014 installment, which was an unknown quantity at the time and only debuted with $14.4 million before becoming an $86 million hit. While this is not unexpected given the fact that it is a spinoff rather than a direct continuation, Ballerina ends the franchise's trend of each new movie debuting with roughly $20 million more than the previous installment. Below, see a breakdown of the box office performance of the previous four installments in the action franchise:

While the reported budget of Ballerina is roughly $90 million, making it the second most costly John Wick movie behind Chapter 4, Lionsgate typically covers the costs of their releases with international presales. However, if the new installment follows the precedent set by the previous movies, which all had worldwide multipliers of just under 6, it may only earn between $145 and $165 million by the end of its run. That worldwide total would make it the second lowest-grossing installment of the franchise, falling just behind Chapter 2's worldwide gross of $174.3 million.

Our Take On The Weekend Box Office

Lilo & Stitch Needs A Proper Challenge

While Lilo & Stitch is a runaway hit, in order for the summer movie season of 2025 to truly succeed, it can't be propped up by a single title. Stitch needs to be met with a proper challenger sooner than later, as neither Karate Kid: Legends nor From the World of John Wick: Ballerina has proven to be an overly strong performer. This need may be met soon, as the live-action How to Train Your Dragon premieres on June 13 and could capture much of the same nostalgic audience as Stitch, making it the second major hit of the summer.

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Source: Deadline