The 2025 box office has so far been dominated by the final movies of 2024, but Den of Thieves 2: Pantera and Better Man arrive with hopes of potentially bringing the new year some early hits. Although the Robbie Williams biopic, where he's a CGI chimpanzee, received a limited theatrical release at Christmas, it only played in six theaters. January 10th marks the wide release of Better Man as it squares off with Gerard Butler and O'Shea Jackson Jr.'s sequel to 2018's surprise action/crime hit Den of Thieves.

The option for audiences to watch Den of Thieves 2 in theaters, and Better Man for that matter, is just what the box office needs at this stage. Mufasa: The Lion King, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, Nosferatu, Moana 2, and Wicked were the top five earners at the domestic box office during the first weekend of January. With Vertical's horror movie The Damned and Warner Bros.'s re-release of Se7en marking the only new releases last week, neither came close to beating Mufasa as the top earner. That's what Den of Thieves 2 and Better Man hope to do this weekend.

Den Of Thieves 2: Pantera Opening Weekend Box Office Projections

Gerard Butler's Sequel Could Make $15M+

Lionsgate is releasing Den of Thieves 2: Pantera after distribution changed hands throughout the sequel's development, and the studio behind John Wick is hoping this becomes another hit action franchise. The original Den of Thieves opened to $15.2 million in a similar early January release date back in 2018, where it finished its theatrical run making $44.9 million domestically and $80.5 million worldwide. Still, the first film's opening weekend was only good for the third spot, falling just behind Chris Hemsworth's 12 Strong ($15.8M) and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ($19.5M).

Long-range projections for Den of Thieves 2's opening weekend called for a similar performance as the first film, with Box Office Pro putting the range at $10M-$15M. However, there are reasons to believe that it could do better than that; the sequel has no direct competition in of R-rated action films skewing toward adult males. As a sequel with a recognizable star at the focus, Den of Thieves 2 could match or exceed Jason Statham's The Beekeeper, which opened at #2 with $16.5M last year in the same weekend. Variety reports the sequel is tracking for a $11M-$13M opening.

If reviews are better than the original, Den of Thieves 2 could find itself having a solid opening weekend between $15M-$20M. His movies consistently open in the $10M+ range, as Plane, Angel Has Fallen, Den of Thieves, Geostorm, London Has Fallen, and Olympus Has Fallen are a handful of recent examples to eclipse that mark. The Has Fallen sequels both made over $21M in their opening weekends, so Butler's star power as an action lead could be enough to bring a similar result for Den of Thieves 2 if everything goes well.

Better Man Opening Weekend Box Office Projections

The Robbie Williams Biopic Faces Box Office Uncertainty

Paramount bet big on Better Man, giving the biopic for Robbie Williams as a CGI monkey from director Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman) a reported $110 million budget, but acquired by Paramount for only $25 million. However, the film has not yet delivered at the box office. Part of this is due to the limited six-theater release that it had for the first two weeks of release, resulting in it making less than six figures domestically during that time. January 10 is when Better Man finally expands to more theaters, but its box office performance is not clear.

It is confirmed Better Man will play in around 1,200 theaters domestically, with tracking suggesting a low $2 million opening. Interest in the movie has started to pick up during its limited release, as it had a $4,349 per theater average last weekend - up from its $3,043 average to start. Even with Better Man's positive reviews helping bring the film more attention, the safe prediction for its opening weekend box office is $5 million or less. It would need a higher per theater average or play in well over 1,000 theaters to do better.

New Indie Releases For January 10 & Box Office Projections

The Last Showgirl & Hard Truths Hit Theaters

Den of Thieves 2 and Better Man are the bigger-budgeted movies coming to theaters this weekend, but they are not the only new releases. Notably, January 10 is also when The Last Showgirl and Hard Truths become available. Both movies are in the mix this awards season, with Pamela Anderson picking up Golden Globes and SAG nominations for her performance in The Last Showgirl. With Oscar voting now underway, the films' releases provide an opportunity for each to have a moment to shine potentially.

The Last Showgirl and Hard Truths are not expected to be major box office performers right away, though. Official tracking for either film is not available online. While The Last Showgirl has more star power and an impressive showing in its one-theater Oscar-qualifying release in December, Roadside Attractions is not known for delivering big financial hits; none of Roadside Attractions' movies had an opening weekend of over $2 million last year. Bleecker Street's distribution of Hard Truths will likely keep its opening weekend well below $1 million, too.

Mufasa, Sonic 3, Nosferatu & More Are Poised For Strong Weekends Again

Late 2024 Releases Will Keep Doing Well At The Box Office

The January 10-12 weekend should continue to see some of 2024's final releases do well in 2025. Mufasa and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 have been battling for the top spot at the box office for the past three weeks. While Sonic 3's opening weekend got the best of Mufasa, Disney's The Lion King prequel has had very strong legs and even managed to overtake the Paramount's video game movie sequel. Both films made over $21 million last weekend, with barely a $2 million difference between them. Each should be in the mid-to-high teens this weekend.

After Mufasa had a 3.6% increase in its second weekend, it had a 36.3% drop in its third weekend. That gives the film better holds than Sonic the Hedgehog 3 had in its second and third weekends, at 38.4% and 42.3% drops, respectively. These trends point to a $15M-$18M fourth weekend for Mufasa if it can have a similar hold. Sonic 3 could make around $13M-16M if it continues to lag behind.

Mufasa: The Lion King has outperformed Sonic the Hedgehog 3 at the worldwide box office

As for the rest of the movies in theaters in January 2025, Nosferatu, Moana 2, Wicked, A Complete Unknown, and Babygirl are trending in good directions. Robert Eggers' horror movie had a sub-40% drop in its second weekend, so it could make another $7M-$10M. Disney has yet to put Moana 2 on streaming, so it could keep doing well as it closes in on $1 billion worldwide. Wicked is starting to drop more now that it's available for at-home viewing on digital. That could benefit A Complete Unknown and Babygirl's performances after both had a stellar second weekend.

Predicted Top 10 Box Office For January 10-12, 2025

Mufasa Is Predicted To Win The Weekend Again

This weekend puts three films firmly in contention to take the #1 spot at the box office, as this battle should come down to Mufasa, Sonic 3, and Den of Thieves 2. There's a world where any of these titles could see themselves at the top of the weekend once the actuals for January 10-12 become known. At this point, I'm predicting that Mufasa will win the weekend and be the #1 movie at the domestic box office for a second consecutive weekend.

It would not be a huge surprise if Den of Thieves 2 ultimately takes the weekend, but it will need a huge push from adult males to get it done. Nosferatu and Moana 2 round out the predicted top 5, which would be an impressive seven consecutive weekends in the top five for Disney's animated sequel. A Complete Unknown is expected to keep doing well as it gets more attention during awards season, and same for Wicked and even Babygirl to some degree. Better Man and Gladiator II finish my predicted top 10 for this weekend at the box office.

Source: Box Office Pro, Variety