The 2025 Oscars Best Picture nominee, which hasn't been done in 47 years. The official nominees are Mikey Madison (Anora), Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez), Fernanda Torres (I'm Still Here), Demi Moore (The Substance), and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked).

The final results of the 2025 Oscar nominations delivered a mostly expected lineup in Best Actress. Although the likes of Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, and others had hopes of nominations, they are all among the snubs in this category. Now instead of debating who should be nominated, the conversation turns to looking at who is going to win. And considering how much the category has shifted throughout the awards season, Screen Rant's prediction for the Best Actress winner for the 97th Academy Awards ceremony on March 2nd is a close call.

5 Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez

Her Campaign Has Been Tanked By Controversies

Karla Sofía Gascón was certainly in the running for Best Actress and viewed as a darkhorse contender thanks to the unexpected love Emilia Pérez received during Oscar nominations. Its 13 nominations are the most of any film this year and one of the highest marks ever. That put Emilia Pérez, and its star, in a strong spot to do very well on March 2nd. The historic aspect of Gascón being the first openly trans person to receive an Oscar nomination provided a clear narrative push for the actress to win after some early awards success at Cannes.

Everything changed for her Best Actress chances once Karla Sofía Gascón's controversial tweets resurfaced. Her old remarks stirred up even more division for an already divisive film due to the racist and offensive opinions she had shared years ago. Gascón seemingly did herself no favors as she continued to talk about the tweets, her intentions with them, and failed to deliver an apology that resonated. This resulted in Emilia Pérez distancing itself from her, with Netflix even dropping its headline star from further awards promotions.

Even without the controversies, Gascón was becoming more of a longshot to win Best Actress due to a lack of precursor wins. Losing at Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, SAG Awards, and elsewhere solidified her position. There is no chance that she'll get enough votes from Academy to win if for no other reason than the bad PR it would bring and the awkward acceptance speech that could come.

4 Cynthia Erivo - Wicked

Erivo Is A Former Best Actress Nominee

Cynthia Erivo is back in the Oscar race once again, defying all doubts about Wicked's chances this awards season. The hit musical vaulted to the center of many Oscars discussions, and Erivo's powerful display as Elphaba is one of the many reasons why. Erivo entered the season as a presumed longshot for a nomination even though she was previously nominated for Best Actress thanks to Harriet. After not winning at the 2020 ceremony, it would be a total surprise if she ultimately rose to the top of the category with Wicked.

Ironically, Cynthia Erivo's last Oscar-nominated performance ultimately lost to a musical, as Renée Zellweger won Best Actress that year for playing The Wizard of Oz's star Judy Garland in the biopic Judy. Now that she is part of the big musical film in Wicked, Erivo is looking to be the latest in a long line of Best Actress winners who headlined major musicals - ing Renée Zellweger (Judy), Emma Stone (La La Land), Reese Witherspoon (Walk the Line), Sissy Spacek (Coal Miner's Daughter), Liza Minnelli (Cabaret), Barbra Streisand (Funny Girl), Julie Andrews (Mary Poppins), and Luise Rainer (The Great Ziegfeld).

With Erivo losing at the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice Awards, and SAG Awards, her hopes of winning the Oscar have vanished. She'll Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rogue!) and Renée Zellweger (Chicago) as stars of recent Broadway musical movie adaptations who did not win Best Actress. Perhaps she'll have better luck at the Oscars 2026 if she's nominated again for Wicked: For Good.

3 Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here

She Won The Golden Globe For Best Actress - Drama

Fernanda Torres is officially a Best Actress nominee for the Oscars 2025 thanks to I'm Still Here. Brazil's entry for Best International Feature revolves around a family dynamic, but Torres' character is at the center. After reviews noted the strength of her performance, Torres became a notable figure in this category. She's a well-respected and award-winning actress in Brazil, and now I'm Still Here is expanding the audience's - and Oscar voters' - exposure to her work.

The Best Actress category has a relatively good track record of showing love to international performances

The Best Actress category has a relatively good track record of showing love to international performances, which Torres' nomination continues. Sandra Hüller was nominated last year for Anatomy of a Fall, and Penélope Cruz was nominated in 2022 for Parallel Mothers. There were also nominations for Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Isabelle Huppert (Elle), and Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) in the last decade. However, no actress has won Bes Actress for a non-English speaking role since 2008 when Cotillard did it for La Vie en Rose. Torres hopes to do it next.

Fernanda Torres' mother was the last Brazilian actress nominated for an Oscar in 1999

There is only a small chance that Torres actually wins the Best Actress Oscar, though. I'm Still Here clearly has a lot of fans in the Academy after the film's Best Picture nomination. She would need that to put her above Mikey Madison and Demi Moore and then get even more help to win. Fernanda Torres beat both at the Golden Globes, so it is not impossible that she could do the same at the Oscars. But without a stronger precursor performance, there's simply not enough for her to win and unseat the top two contenders.

2 Mikey Madison - Anora

A Breakout Role Has Led To Her First Oscar Nomination

Mikey Madison is a strong contender for the Oscars 2025 Best Actress award. She does not have previous awards pedigree, but neither do the other nominees in this category. Madison is the star of what might be the Best Picture frontrunner in Anora. The young actress has continued to rise through Hollywood in recent years, whether its working with Quentin Tarantino or ing the Scream franchise. It was only after these films that she landed the lead role in Sean Baker's Anora, which explores new love and marriage as a stripper.

The case for Mikey Madison's Oscar nomination in 2025 comes through Anora's position for the overall awards season. It's a heavy favorite to win Best Picture, while Sean Baker is also a strong contender for the Oscars 2025 Best Director category. Anora got six nominations overall, but Madison is one of its best chances to win. If voters want to ensure Anora is an Oscar-winning film, giving her the Best Actress win would secure that status. She has the most precursor wins of any Best Actress nominee to accompany her Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards nominations.

However, the fact that Madison lost at Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG are marks against her. The argument for her to win is tied to the belief that Anora would win Best Picture and win the majority of its six Oscar nominations. Madison's only major precursor victory came at BAFTA. That indicates there is still a chance that she wins, but she really need a win at SAG to inspire more confidence in the prediction. Without that outcome, it's a bit trickier to bet against the recent momentum in Demi Moore's favor.

If she does ultimately win, Mikey Madison will be one of the youngest Best Actress winners in Oscars history, as she'd not yet been 26 years old at the time of the ceremony. History suggests that voters could wait to give her the win in favor of selecting a more seasoned professional with an Oscar pedigree or better career narrative. Mikey Madison's Best Actress odds are favorable, even if that's not what we predict right now.

1 Demi Moore - The Substance

Her Golden Globe Win Has Made Her The Favorite

Demi Moore is officially an Oscar nominee for The Substance, and she now seems to be in a great spot to win Best Actress. Coralie Fargeat's film is one of the year's best surprises, earning critical acclaim, financial success, and now continued recognition throughout awards season. Demi Moore's performance is a big reason why, as she's become the face of The Substance's power. Her career comeback narrative also boosts her standing, pushing her ahead of someone like Madison, who has been viewed as a contender for much longer this season.

The tides turned in Demi Moore's favor for the 2025 Oscars Best Actress category with the Golden Globes. Competing in the very competitive Best Actress - Musical or Comedy category, she was the selected winner over Madison, Gascón, Erivo, Amy Adams, and Zendaya. The Globes were a spot for Madison to secure her spot as a frontrunner, but Moore's win did the same for her. She went on to win at Critics Choice, SAG, and more. Demi Moore's SAG win should lock up the Oscar for her.

Picking between Mikey Madison and Demi Moore is still a close race

SAG and the Oscars have matched Best Actress winners 9 out of the last 12 years. Overall, the same actress has won at both awards shows in 21 out of 30 years. That's a solid track record for an Oscar precursor and further emphasizes Demi Moore's position in the lead. Picking between Mikey Madison and Demi Moore is still a close race, especially given Anora's expected strong performance in all Oscars categories. But The Substance's star has the advantage heading into the ceremony.

Moore will Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye), and Renée Zellweger (Judy) as established stars who finally won their first Best Actress Oscar recently. Her win at the Oscars would be most similar to Yeoh's, as a first-time nominee at nearly 60 years old in a bold genre film. Considering the journey of her acting career and the terrific performance on display in The Substnace, Demi Moore is a very worthy winner of the Oscars 2025 Best Actress category - if it happens as predicted.