Mikey Madison is viewed as a major 2025 Oscars Best Actress nominations following the initial screenings of Anora out of the Cannes Film Festival. The calls for Mikey Madison to win an Oscar for her role have only grown as the film opened in theaters and the awards season campaigning kicks into high gear.

Suggesting that Mikey Madison should be nominated for an Oscar is one thing, but going as far as to say that she should or will win Best Actress is another. Doing so would require her peers viewing her performance as the best of the best from the entire year. That could be difficult with a mega-star like Angelina Jolie or Oscars-darling in Saoirse Ronan also in the running. Still, there's a growing sense that the Best Actress Oscar is Mikey Madison's to lose. But is that just wishful thinking or the direction the race is heading?

The Odds Are In Mikey Madison's Favor To Win Best Actress At The 2025 Oscars

She's Considered The Frontrunner At The Moment

The idea that Mikey Madison is the favorite to win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars is not merely a narrative that's being pushed online. GoldDerby puts the Anora star as the odds-on frontrunner to ultimately win. The outlet - which does not actually take or accept bets on the Oscars - has put Mikey Madison's odds at 19/5 to win Best Actress. That's ahead of Angelina Jolie (Maria) at 9/2, Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez) at 5/1, Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) at 8/1, and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) at 10/1. DraftKings puts Madison's odds at -160 to win.

Those odds only give Madison a narrow margin over Jolie, who is a former Best ing Actress winner and Best Actress nominee. This could change drastically with Maria debuting on Netflix on December 11 and expanding the reach of Jolie's performance. The good news for Madison is that she is attached to the movie that is the predicted Oscars 2025 Best Picture winner. Anora continuing its strong push throughout awards season will help Madison's case, even if she loses some ground to Jolie in the coming weeks.

Mikey Madison Would Be One Of The Youngest Best Actress Winners In Oscars History

History Suggests Madison's Oscars Win Is A Bit More Difficult

It's important to look back at Oscars history to really get a sense of Mikey Madison's chances to win. This is due to two major factors that are inherent to her candidacy. She has never been nominated for an Oscar before, and she will be only weeks away from turning 26 at the time of the 97th Academy Awards. That means that the Anora star would be one of the youngest Best Actress winners in history, especially among people who won as a first-time nominee.

To be more specific, Mikey Madison would be the ninth youngest Best Actress winner in Oscars history at 25 years and 342 days old at the time of the ceremony. This would make her the youngest Best Actress Oscar winner since 2016, when Brie Larson won for Room when she was just over 26 years old. Only Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) at 22 years and 193 days and Hilary Swank (Boys Don't Cry) at 25 years and 240 days won Oscars at younger ages than Mikey Madison in the last quarter century.

Of those three comparable Oscar winners, Larson and Swank are the best comps for the Anora actress. Madison would be a winner as a first-time nominee, just like both of them, whereas Lawrence won on her second Oscar nomination. Throughout Oscars history, Madison would become the sixth youngest Best Actress winner in their first nomination and the youngest since Swank. This all goes to show how rare Mikey Madison winning Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars actually would be if it happened. The Academy voters usually don't make the youngest performers the winners.

What Mikey Madison's Age Means For Her Winning The Best Actress Oscar For Anora

Madison Just Needs A Strong Campaign

Although Mikey Madison's age puts her in rarified company to become an Oscar winner for Anora, it should not stop her from winning the award. It does make it more difficult, though, on paper. The good news for Madison is that she's leading the race right now and has been able to hold onto the top spot for a good part of the year. Anora is in a strong spot for a resurgence as awards season ramps up, and that's only going to help Madison's case to win, in my opinion. The more that actual Oscar voters check out the film (whether on streaming or at FYC events), the better her odds should get.

It is worth noting, though, that the crossover between Best Picture winners and Best Actress winners is not all that great. The Best Actress winner has only come from the Best Picture winner 13 times in the last 96 Academy Awards - although its happened in two out of the last four, so this could be changing. Of that group, eight of the actresses were first time nominees like Madison would be. But, none of them were younger.

However, there's also a way for Madison's age to be used against her in the awards season. She's an up-and-coming star who has now proven she's capable of delivering an Oscar-worthy performance, so there could be a thought that she has more opportunities to win in the future. With veteran performers like Angelina Jolie and Demi Moore seeking their first Best Actress Oscar or Nicole Kidman and Kate Winslet gunning for their second, could voters vote in favor of stars whose legacies can be bolstered by a win? It wouldn't be the first time the Oscars have done so.

Mikey Madison is still rightfully at the forefront of the Best Actress category and all conversations surrounding it thanks to Anora. However, Maria's release could be used to give Angelina Jolie a significant push right as more of awards season gets going. Madison is certainly heading for an Oscar nomination at the very least at this point. But if she's going to hold off Jolie, Kidman, and others for the win, Neon will have to mount a strong Oscars campaign to keep Anora at the front of voters' minds and Madison at the top of their ballots.